Oscar Predictions - 23 January 2011

As of this writing, the Oscar nominations have not been announced.  Having seen a few of the contending movies, I figured I'd give you my predictions as to who I think will be nominated and who will win in a few of the major categories.



So, without further ado:

Best Picture:
The Descendants
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

Pretty easy category to call.  Sometimes, they nominate up to 10 movies.  I think this year, we're not looking at more than 6.  In my opinion, Shame or Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy might sneak in.  There's been a lot of chatter for Moneyball - I just don't see a nomination.  Another movie that's gotten a little bit of chatter that won't get in? Melancholia.  But more on that in a minute.

As far as winner - it should be The Descendants, which was the best movie of the year.  The Artist might swoop in and steal this one, but that would be an upset.

Best Actor:
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Ryan Gossling - Drive
Joseph Gordon-Levitt - 50-50
Michael Fassbender - Shame

A lot of people, once again, think that Brad Pitt will sneak into this category.  I don't think he will, even though he was very good in Moneyball.  Gary Oldman could be nominated for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, but I would be shocked.

George Clooney had two for-your-consideration performances this year - The Descendants and The Ides of March.  There's no way he loses this.

Best Actress:
Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Kirsten Dunst - Melancholia
Charlize Theron - Young Adult
Rooney Mara - The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo

This was the toughest category for me to predict. So many excellent performances.  Viola Davis in The Help was hard to leave out of these category, as was Tilda Swinton for her great performance in We Need To Talk About Kevin.

And I'm including Kirsten Dunst's chilling performance in Melancholia, and few other predictions are.  Others don't like her odds.  I like her odds.  Her performance was deep and complex, more so than any other in her career.  I haven't been a fan of hers before. I am now. And since the movie isn't going to be nominated, even through it should be as well, the best performance in the movie must be.

And I think this is a two-horse race between Michelle Williams and Meryl Streep.  Too close to call, but I give it to Williams.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Kenneth Brannagh, My Week With Marilyn
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method

All five are easy calls.  Max Von Sydow might sneak in for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.  Brad Pitt might sneak in here with his performance in The Tree of Life.  I think Albert Brooks is on the outside looking in.

Again, this is a two-horse race.  Kenneth Brannagh hasn't gotten enough respect for his role as Laurence Olivier in My Week With Marilyn, but I can think of no better actor for that role, especially after watching him become a tormented Olivier so perfectly.  And Christopher Plummer has come a long way from being high on the hill with the lonely goatherd... A tremendous performance for an 82-year old who has never won an Oscar.  He probably takes it.

Best Supporting Actress:
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Bryce Dallas Howard, The Help
Carey Mulligan, Shame

There were, once again, many excellent performances in this category.  A whole slew of women from The Help could have qualified, but I think Ron Howard's kid gets the nomination. I will not be surprised by a Jessica Chastain nomination, though. Sandra Bullock's career-defining performance in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close finally vindicates her for The Net, as far as I am concerned, but that's as good as she gets this year.

If anyone other than Shailene Woodley wins, I'll be throwing Junior Mints at my TV screen.

Best Original Song:
"Man or Muppet" - The Muppets
"Life's A Happy Song" - The Muppets
"Pictures In My Head" - The Muppets
"The Living Proof" - The Help
"Hello Hello" - Gnomeo and Juliet.

"Man or Muppet" for the win.  The Muppets was a musical with many memorable songs, but that was the most so.

Best Director:
Michel Hazanavicius - The Arist
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Tate Taylor - The Help

It's possible that George Clooney or Steven Spielberg could sneak into this category, but I doubt it.  Terrence Mallick is on the outside looking in with The Tree of Life.

This is a tough race.  All five are solid nominees.  I give it to Hazanavicius, who had the extra handicap of a silent film.

I could do more predictions, but let's start there.  What do you think?