24 January 2012

Oscar Predictions - So How Did I Do?

I did OK on Oscar predictions, but I made some big mistakes.  Let's review, shall we?

I have crossed out my errors, and added the additional nominees in Italics.

Best Picture:
The Descendants
The Artist
The Help
The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Midnight In Paris
War Horse
The Tree of  Life
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Not too bad.  They did nominate nine films, which is a lot.  However, neither one that I thought might sneak in - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Shame - made the cut.

And this doesn't change my prediction for a 2-horse race with The Descendants taking it.

Best Actor:
George Clooney - The Descendants
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Ryan Gossling - Drive
Joseph Gordon-Levitt - 50-50
Michael Fassbender - Shame
Demian Bachir, A Better Life
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

I am very surprised that Brad Pitt made the cut, and equally surprised that Michael Fassbender didn't.  I guess I shouldn't have been - the Academy is not the most progressive group, and Shame was an NC-17 rated film - but it's wrong!

I still call George Clooney as the winner here.  He still had two for-your-consideration worthy performances in 2011.

Best Actress:
Michelle Williams - My Week With Marilyn
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Kirsten Dunst - Melancholia
Charlize Theron - Young Adult
Rooney Mara - The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help

I'm not surprised on the two additional nominees.  I'm not even surprised that Charlize Theron didn't get a nomination.  I am surprised that Kirsten Dunst's fantastic performance has once again been overlooked.  I really thought that was going to happen.

Neither of my two frontrunners were left out, however, and I still give it to Michelle Williams.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Kenneth Brannagh, My Week With Marilyn
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

My two predicted nominees that didn't make the cut aren't surprises.  I thought Max von Sydow might sneak in, and, to be perfectly honest, Nick Nolte isn't a huge surprise, either.

With Nick Nolte in the list of nominees, however, this is no longer a 2-horse race.  I still think Christopher Plummer takes it, but Nolte, who has never won, could surprise here.

Best Supporting Actress:
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
Bryce Dallas Howard, The Help
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Can't say I'm surprised with the nominees from The Help.  I already had called Jessica Chastain as a possible nominee.  I am shocked at the fact that Shailene Woodley didn't get nominated. That is a gigantic oversight, and the Academy should be ashamed.

Of course, since my predicted winner wasn't nominated... No one saw Albert Nobbs, and The Help will split votes, so this just became a 2-horse race, going to the extremely funny and recent Emmy winner Melissa McCarthy.

But as far as I'm concerned, this is Shailene Woodley's award, and any winner here is the runner-up to what was the most complex performance I saw on screen all year.

Best Original Song:
"Man or Muppet" - The Muppets
"Life's A Happy Song" - The Muppets
"Pictures In My Head" - The Muppets
"The Living Proof" - The Help
"Hello Hello" - Gnomeo and Juliet.
"Real in Rio", Rio

Only two nominees.  And the one that survived of my predictions is my pick to win it.

Best Director:
Michel Hazanavicius - The Arist
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Tate Taylor - The Help
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life

Malick in, Taylor out.  Can't say I'm upset about that, but I am a little surprised.  Doesn't change the fact that I think Michel  Hazanavicius wins this.

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